They published that result in the journal Chaos. Those spontaneous extinctions of the disease made them wonder: if the small towns or counties did more to isolate themselves from neighboring communities, would that sometimes extinguish COVID-19 enough that they could lift restrictions and resume more of normal life for longer period, until the disease popped up again?Ī rigorous mathematical analysis showed that indeed, this kind of divide-and-conquer strategy can work, at least in theory. They noticed that case counts within small populations sometimes drop all the way to zero as long as people are wearing masks, social distancing, and taking the other standard precautions.
The group built a mathematical model of coronavirus transmission that accounts for the inherently random ways that the number of infections fluctuates over time. The research was done at the University of Oxford, Göttingen University, and the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization. has applied the tools of chaos theory to show that divisions of a constructive kind could actually bring the pandemic under control much more effectively. But a new study by mathematicians in Germany and the U.K.
Public health experts shake their heads at the chaotic political divisions and inconsistent policies that have undermined attempts to control the spread of COVID-19 through much of the world.
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